The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has officially announced the onset of an El Niño event, warning Australians to brace themselves for a hot and dry summer that could potentially escalate the risk of bushfires. This announcement comes two months after the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organisation had already flagged the arrival of El Niño, predicting a season of extreme heat and record-breaking temperatures.
“This summer will be hotter than average and certainly hotter than the last three years,” Dr Karl Braganza from the BoM said.
This sentiment is echoed by other global weather agencies, including the US Climate Prediction Centre and the Japan Meteorological Agency, which anticipate that the El Niño conditions will persist until at least the end of February.
El Niño is a climate pattern characterized by a rise in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific regions. This shift tends to push cloud and rainfall activity further into the Pacific, resulting in drier and potentially drought-prone conditions in Australia.
This phenomenon is part of a larger climate system known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which also includes the wetter and cooler La Niña phase.
Adding to the concern is another climate factor, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which affects sea surface temperatures in the tropical Indian Ocean. A positive phase of the IOD could potentially reduce moisture flow towards Australia, further decreasing rainfall and increasing daytime temperatures.
This year’s El Niño event is causing worry among meteorologists, firefighters, and farmers, who fear harsh conditions and stronger bushfires, especially given the growth following the recent wet years.
The BoM has identified specific signs indicating the onset of an El Niño event, including a clear warming trend in the Pacific Ocean and weakened trade winds over the last few months.
As Australia gears up for a potentially harsh spring and summer, the BoM is emphasizing the increased bushfire risk, particularly in areas already experiencing extreme weather conditions.
Despite the current wetter landscape compared to the drought-stricken period leading up to the devastating 2019 black summer, the rapid drying trend and soaring temperatures highlight the urgent need for vigilance, especially in regions like eastern NSW, which has already recorded unprecedented temperatures for September.
For more information, keep an eye out on the BOM website, here.
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