SA Health have released updated modelling undertaken by Professor Joshua Ross and Dr Thomas Prowse at the University of Adelaide.
This modelling projects the impact of COVID-19 and the Omicron variant in South Australia.
The project has been consistently reviewed and recalibrated as the COVID situation evolves in the state as we input our local SA data.
It’s an important tool to help plan for SA’s health system response and accounts for changes in vaccination rates, public health and social measures, and isolation and quarantine.
Readjusted data shows South Australia will most likely have a peak of around 5,500 cases a day, rather than upward of 8,000 as previously calculated.
The latest model has altered the assumptions of the impact of lifting restrictions on disease transmission.
While it is difficult to predict human behaviour, this is a good indication that South Australians are continuing to do the right thing such as staying home if unwell and keeping up with COVID-safe behaviours while out in the community.
The updated modelling also outlines the number of hospitalisations for COVID-19 and this is good news with less hospitalisation than first estimated.
It is possible this is due to the BA.2 sub-variant being less severe than BA.1, but it is still not know yet.
People are also keeping out of hospital by getting treated with oral antivirals and we are using alternatives to hospital care for many people now.
Hospital staff are still working very hard because people admitted with incidental COVID (when a COVID positive patient is hospitalised for other health reasons) need a higher level of PPE and isolation from others.
It is still a little early to tell if South Australia have reached the peak of the Omicron wave, but watching the case numbers over the next few days may help in this regard.
If you have any COVID-19 symptoms, no matter how mild, please seek testing as soon as possible.
Find your nearest testing site at www.sahealth.sa.gov.au/COVIDtesting.
For more information visit https://www.covid-19.sa.gov.au/ or call the SA COVID-19 Information Line on 1800 253 787
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