Image Credit: Quentin Ferrand
The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has presented its long-range weather forecast, offering insights to the Australian community as they brace for the peak severe weather season. Historically, Australia experiences the most intense weather phenomena between October and April, which include heatwaves, bushfires, tropical cyclones, severe thunderstorms, and floods.
In light of current climate drivers, the forecast, and recent climatic conditions, the BOM has warned of a heightened risk of heatwaves and bushfires for this year. The climate drivers influencing this season differ from the past three years, with both El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events being dominant factors this year.
Key projections for the 2023–24 season include:
- Heatwave: A significant likelihood of abnormally warm temperatures is predicted for the majority of Australia, lasting until at least February 2024.
- Bushfire: There’s an elevated risk across much of eastern and southern Australia. This heightened risk is attributed to decreased rainfall, higher fuel loads, and above-average temperatures.
- Tropical cyclones: Despite the overall cyclone count expected to be below average, there’s typically at least one tropical cyclone that makes landfall each season.
- Severe thunderstorms: These are expected to pose a typical risk, especially during the drier late Spring and early Summer months.
- Flooding: The risk remains average, especially in localised regions during heavy rainfall episodes and the northern wet season.
According to Senior Meteorologist Sarah Scully, Australians should brace for a season characterised by warm and dry conditions, particularly noting the enhanced risks of heatwaves and bushfires.
‘Daytime and night-time temperatures have an increased chance of being unusually warm from October to February. Warm nights after hot days means little relief from heat and can lead to heat stress’, says Ms Scully said.
Furthermore, she highlighted the persistent danger of destructive fires during this period, with recent above-average rainfall leading to significant grass growth and, consequently, amplified fire risks.
The Bureau has also forecast that this season there will be an 80% chance of fewer than average tropical cyclones concern with areas on the north-west coast between Broome and Exmouth, Northern Queensland, and the Top End of the NT being of the most concern.
‘On average, the first tropical cyclone crosses the Australian coast in late December. This can be later in El Niño years – possibly early to mid-January. During El Niño, the number of tropical cyclones in the Australian region is often below average’, says Ms Scully.
This season, the onset of the Australian summer monsoon is expected to be later than the average during El Niño and positive IOD years. With severe thunderstorms being more prevalent during warmer months, Ms Scully pointed out the potential hazards.
“Thunderstorm asthma can be triggered by thunderstorms after high grass growth in southern Australia from October to December when pollen levels are highest.’
While larger areas of Australia are forecasted to be drier than usual, risks of riverine and flash flooding remain, especially in regions affected by heavy rainstorms.
The BOM underscores the importance of proactive preparedness, advising the public to stay informed as they continue to provide regular forecasts and warnings to aid the community. For real-time alerts and updates, downloading the BOM Weather app and activating warning notifications is highly recommended.
To learn more about the severe weather long-range forecast and related precautions, click here.
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