South Australians can expect warmer days and nights this spring, with below-average rainfall forecast across much of the state’s agricultural regions.
The Bureau of Meteorology has released its spring long-range forecast for 2026, predicting above-average temperatures across South Australia during both the day and overnight.
Rainfall is likely to be below average across most of the Southern Agricultural Areas, although the Bureau stressed this did not mean conditions would remain dry throughout the season. Instead, these areas were expected to receive less rain than usual overall.
Parts of the North West Pastoral district are likely to record above-average rainfall, while there is no clear rainfall signal for most north-eastern areas.
Total rainfall between September and November has a high chance of reaching at least 50 to 100mm across most agricultural areas and between 10 and 50mm throughout much of the pastoral districts.
The warmer outlook follows an unusually mild winter, when daytime temperatures were above average across almost the entire country.
While winter rainfall varied nationally, much of South Australia received above-average falls due to north-west cloudbands, cold fronts and low-pressure systems.
These wetter conditions have left soil moisture above average across large parts of the state. However, the recent rain has also increased vegetation and fuel loads in the upper north-west, where the seasonal fire risk is now elevated.
El Niño is expected to strengthen and continue throughout spring and summer. Although El Niño is generally linked to reduced rainfall across parts of Australia, the Bureau said the strength of the climate pattern did not always directly correspond with its impact on rainfall.
Warmer-than-usual oceans surrounding Australia may also add moisture and energy to weather systems, potentially contributing to periods of rain despite the overall drier outlook.
The Bureau and emergency services are encouraging communities to use early spring to review their bushfire and emergency plans.
The national winter climate summary will be released on September 1, followed by detailed state, territory and capital city summaries on September 3.
More information is available through the Bureau of Meteorology’s long-range forecast.
